{ "schema_version": "2.0", "model_id": "2026-09-05-draft-2", "status": "draft", "as_of": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z", "scope": "Cumulative complete general-purpose bipedal humanoids built worldwide, including research prototypes and internal fleets. G1/X-series-scale robots qualify; small dedicated educational/toy humanoids do not.", "reading": { "at": 1788566400000, "count": 47875, "exact": 47875.364562176415, "range": { "low": 31364.592884081365, "central": 47875.364562176415, "high": 78984.5581907669 }, "rate": { "low": 74.97868006183892, "central": 123.44491760873365, "high": 209.25088167828636 }, "secondsToNext": 445, "intervalSeconds": 699.907308244558, "nextUnitProgress": 0.3645621764153475, "milestone": 50000, "milestoneAt": 1790053447870.288, "milestoneProgress": 0.9150145824870566, "documentedFloor": 14706, "modeledAddition": 33169.364562176415, "isBeforeAnchor": false }, "contributions": [ { "id": "unitree", "name": "Unitree", "estimated_built": { "low": 16450.106696236064, "central": 18772.016571369808, "high": 24356.08940887843 }, "reported_minimum": 12500, "source_ids": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ] }, { "id": "agibot", "name": "AGIBOT", "estimated_built": { "low": 7559.563535911602, "central": 13525.885859467093, "high": 18995.469110659997 }, "reported_minimum": 1846, "source_ids": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ] }, { "id": "ubtech", "name": "UBTECH", "estimated_built": { "low": 1993.7127071823204, "central": 3113.290259167365, "high": 4851.138905344498 }, "reported_minimum": null, "source_ids": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ] }, { "id": "leju", "name": "Leju Robotics", "estimated_built": { "low": 1438.0165745856352, "central": 1883.9528362312008, "high": 2859.7804213095696 }, "reported_minimum": null, "source_ids": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ] }, { "id": "figure", "name": "Figure", "estimated_built": { "low": 676.0883977900553, "central": 1167.2486187845304, "high": 2353.7235937416212 }, "reported_minimum": 350, "source_ids": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ] }, { "id": "engineai", "name": "EngineAI", "estimated_built": { "low": 582.9281767955802, "central": 1338.5862221742773, "high": 2835.6438044013516 }, "reported_minimum": null, "source_ids": [ "omdia-2026" ] }, { "id": "fourier", "name": "Fourier", "estimated_built": { "low": 514.6961325966851, "central": 1166.9764181156004, "high": 2423.2524129993476 }, "reported_minimum": null, "source_ids": [ "omdia-2026" ] }, { "id": "agility", "name": "Agility Robotics", "estimated_built": { "low": 256.17127071823205, "central": 593.6353591160221, "high": 1332.326801257529 }, "reported_minimum": 2, "source_ids": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ] }, { "id": "tesla", "name": "Tesla", "estimated_built": { "low": 126.23204419889503, "central": 661.3922651933701, "high": 3414.3210823781765 }, "reported_minimum": null, "source_ids": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ] }, { "id": "atlas", "name": "Boston Dynamics / Atlas", "estimated_built": { "low": 16.823204419889503, "central": 102.93922651933701, "high": 326.5053177086508 }, "reported_minimum": 7, "source_ids": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ] }, { "id": "research", "name": "Legacy research programs", "estimated_built": { "low": 230.4696132596685, "central": 1103.2110002397458, "high": 4163.039319512435 }, "reported_minimum": 1, "source_ids": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ] }, { "id": "other-makers", "name": "Other manufacturers", "estimated_built": { "low": 1519.7845303867402, "central": 4446.229925798073, "high": 11073.26801257529 }, "reported_minimum": null, "source_ids": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ] } ], "citation": "Humanoid Count estimates 47,875 general-purpose bipedal humanoids built worldwide as of 2026-09-05 00:00:00 UTC. Assumption scenarios: 31,365–78,985; not statistical confidence limits. Modeled pace: 123.4/day. Includes research and internal fleets; no live factory telemetry. Draft model 2026-09-05-draft-2, reviewed 2026-09-05. https://humanoidcount.com/?model=2026-09-05-draft-2&at=2026-09-05T00%3A00%3A00.000Z", "url": "https://humanoidcount.com/?model=2026-09-05-draft-2&at=2026-09-05T00%3A00%3A00.000Z", "model": { "schemaVersion": "2.0", "id": "2026-09-05-draft-2", "status": "draft", "anchorAt": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z", "chartThrough": "2030-12-31T23:59:59Z", "scope": "Cumulative complete general-purpose bipedal humanoids built worldwide, including research prototypes and internal fleets. G1/X-series-scale robots qualify; small dedicated educational/toy humanoids do not.", "exclusions": [ "Wheeled humanoids, quadrupeds, robotic arms and rehabilitation devices", "Small dedicated educational/toy humanoids such as NAO/AELOS", "Unbuilt orders and announced production capacity", "Double counting shipments, customer sites or earlier cumulative milestones" ], "scenarioNote": "Low and high are explicit assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence limits or guaranteed bounds. Production can fall outside this range.", "clockNote": "One shared UTC model integrates each dated production segment. Forecast rates vary by quarter and stop at the end of 2030; this is not live factory telemetry. Historical within-period timing is interpolated, not a record of individual factory events.", "rows": [ { "id": "unitree", "name": "Unitree", "coverage": "H/G/R bipedal platforms; wheeled and quadruped products excluded.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 36.304646912667614, "central": 48.75782683893646, "high": 69.72862740724895 }, "documentedFloor": 12500, "floorHistory": [ { "date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 9, "note": "2023 production, disclosed March 2026." }, { "date": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 554, "note": "9 + 545 produced in disjoint years; disclosed March 2026." }, { "date": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 7054, "note": "Earlier 554 builds + >6,500 produced during 2025." }, { "date": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 12500, "note": "Replace production floor with disjoint 2025/H1 2026 deliveries: >5,500 + >7,000. Never add these deliveries to potentially overlapping production/inventory." } ], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments.", "assumptions": [ "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 9, "central": 9, "high": 9 }, "evidence": "reported", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 545, "central": 545, "high": 545 }, "evidence": "reported", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3701, "central": 3701, "high": 3701 }, "evidence": "reported", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo" ], "method": "Company-reported January–September 2025 production; later full-year estimate contains this cohort." }, { "start": "2025-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2799, "central": 3099, "high": 4299 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Full-year 6,500/6,800/8,000 scenario minus the already reported 3,701 builds; no overlapping-period addition." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7000, "central": 8200, "high": 11200 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "2023/2024 use reported production. 2025 uses the >6,500 company floor with inventory uncertainty. H1 2026 converts >7,000 shipments to 7,000/8,200/11,200 built; no repeated addition of shipments." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 4485.7200691821545, "high": 6415.033721466903 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 5195.774501524444, "high": 8145.960139628699 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3267.418222140085, "central": 5887.394023339384, "high": 10119.062998661679 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3303.7228690527527, "central": 6895.092738824058, "high": 12992.194680495191 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 8074.296124527878, "high": 16679.08767581395 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 9352.394102743998, "high": 21179.496363034614 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3303.7228690527527, "central": 10715.057122477678, "high": 26601.892283148372 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3303.7228690527527, "central": 12411.166929883304, "high": 33779.70616928751 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 14533.733024150182, "high": 43365.62795711627 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 16834.3093849392, "high": 55066.690543890014 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3267.418222140085, "central": 19075.156635619605, "high": 68404.86587095296 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3303.7228690527527, "central": 22340.100473789946, "high": 87827.2360401475 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 26160.719443470327, "high": 112750.6326885023 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 30301.756892890553, "high": 143173.39541411403 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3267.418222140085, "central": 34335.28194411529, "high": 177852.6512644777 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3303.7228690527527, "central": 40212.180852821904, "high": 221992.2380336352 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 47089.2949982466, "high": 224431.71317686193 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3340.02751596542, "central": 51256.57611039241, "high": 224431.71317686193 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "unitree-ipo", "unitree-2025", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.3, "central": 1.8, "high": 2.6 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 100000, "central": 400000, "high": 1000000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "agibot", "name": "AGIBOT", "coverage": "Bipedal A/X products only; modeled exclusion of G-series and A2-W.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 22.099447513812155, "central": 40.18008877980444, "high": 57.810138040302974 }, "documentedFloor": 1846, "floorHistory": [ { "date": "2025-12-08T00:00:00Z", "value": 1846, "note": "X-series biped sample; mixed portfolio excluded." } ], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share.", "assumptions": [ "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling. The eligible holdout selected constant-growth; its implied annual growth is capped at 2× in the central long-term case. The cap is editorial, not fitted to the holdout.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 5, "high": 30 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 300, "central": 700, "high": 850 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1800, "central": 3500, "high": 5100 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 4000, "central": 6669, "high": 9200 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "Mixed milestones are never summed. 2024 biped share is uncertain. Central June 2026 cumulative biped estimate uses the earlier 71.76% family-share proxy; A2-W makes this an assumption, not a measured biped share." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2033.1491712707184, "central": 3696.5681677420084, "high": 5318.532699707874 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2033.1491712707184, "central": 4395.985166171368, "high": 6879.887577149466 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2034.7993098307552, "central": 5114.090384077901, "high": 8706.137692812921 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2153.355708827224, "central": 6149.287256751466, "high": 11387.120651723671 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2278.5445409578406, "central": 7393.136335484017, "high": 14891.891559182044 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2384.8047832365305, "central": 8791.970332342737, "high": 19263.685216018504 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2468.8898292613158, "central": 10341.82722113531, "high": 24648.04315698591 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2477.7921517895643, "central": 12298.574513502932, "high": 31883.937824826276 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2505.020636974065, "central": 14786.272670968034, "high": 41697.29636570973 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2505.020636974065, "central": 17583.940664685473, "high": 53938.31860485182 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2450.5636666050636, "central": 20456.361536311604, "high": 68256.11951165329 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2477.7921517895643, "central": 24597.149027005864, "high": 89275.02590951358 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2505.020636974065, "central": 29572.545341936067, "high": 116752.4298239872 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2505.020636974065, "central": 35167.881329370946, "high": 151027.29209358507 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2450.5636666050636, "central": 40912.72307262321, "high": 191117.1346326292 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2477.7921517895643, "central": 44362.009486847775, "high": 221992.2380336352 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2505.020636974065, "central": 44849.50409659335, "high": 224431.71317686193 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2505.020636974065, "central": 44849.50409659335, "high": 224431.71317686193 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000", "agibot-15000" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.2, "central": 2, "high": 2.8 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 75000, "central": 350000, "high": 1000000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling. The eligible holdout selected constant-growth; its implied annual growth is capped at 2× in the central long-term case. The cap is editorial, not fitted to the holdout." } }, { "id": "ubtech", "name": "UBTECH", "coverage": "General-purpose Walker/industrial bipeds; company totals require a form-factor adjustment.", "anchor": { "low": 1, "central": 20, "high": 80 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 4.419889502762431, "central": 6.928640290414621, "high": 10.774831899159066 }, "documentedFloor": null, "floorHistory": [], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded.", "assumptions": [ "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 6, "high": 15 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 10, "high": 25 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 20, "high": 50 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 50, "high": 120 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 100, "central": 250, "high": 450 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 800, "central": 1150, "high": 1700 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 800, "central": 1150, "high": 1700 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Early Walker cohorts are editorial allocations, not measured totals. Later periods use shipment/sales proxies with biped-share and inventory uncertainty; toy and wheeled lines are excluded." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 406.62983425414365, "central": 637.4349067181452, "high": 991.2845347226341 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 406.62983425414365, "central": 758.0421264203139, "high": 1304.6038155901613 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 411.05207095431007, "central": 881.8719360758114, "high": 1679.6300663121622 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 443.79413814891444, "central": 1060.380918468164, "high": 2235.0787869987435 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 479.08639128794954, "central": 1274.8698134362903, "high": 2973.853604167902 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 501.00412739481305, "central": 1516.0842528406279, "high": 3913.8114467704845 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 495.55843035791287, "central": 1783.341026286641, "high": 5094.8778678135595 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 495.55843035791287, "central": 2120.761836936328, "high": 6705.236360996229 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 501.00412739481305, "central": 2549.7396268725806, "high": 8921.560812503707 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 501.00412739481305, "central": 3032.1685056812557, "high": 11741.434340311454 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 490.11273332101274, "central": 3527.4877443032456, "high": 15116.670596809461 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 495.55843035791287, "central": 4241.523673872656, "high": 20115.70908298869 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 501.00412739481305, "central": 5099.479253745161, "high": 26764.682437511117 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 501.00412739481305, "central": 6064.3370113625115, "high": 35224.303020934356 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 490.11273332101274, "central": 7054.975488606491, "high": 45350.01179042839 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 495.55843035791287, "central": 8483.047347745312, "high": 60347.12724896607 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 501.00412739481305, "central": 10198.958507490323, "high": 67329.51395305859 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 501.00412739481305, "central": 12128.674022725023, "high": 67329.51395305859 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ubtech-2025", "counterpoint-h1", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.3, "central": 2, "high": 3 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 15000, "central": 100000, "high": 300000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "leju", "name": "Leju Robotics", "coverage": "General-purpose Kuavo bipeds; wheeled and small educational products excluded.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 3.591160220994475, "central": 4.756861155018192, "high": 6.81485486832681 }, "documentedFloor": null, "floorHistory": [], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory.", "assumptions": [ "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 20, "high": 60 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 100, "central": 150, "high": 300 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 450, "central": 600, "high": 950 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 650, "central": 800, "high": 1100 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "Kuavo-scale platforms only. Dedicated small education products are excluded. Earlier zeros are scope allocations; later figures use shipment proxies plus modeled inventory." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 330.3867403314917, "central": 437.63122626167365, "high": 626.9666478860665 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 330.3867403314917, "central": 506.9048294170189, "high": 788.3688223481898 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 326.7418222140085, "central": 574.3799047160375, "high": 969.7708488329818 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 330.37228690527525, "central": 672.6919745194201, "high": 1232.9714209485276 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 334.002751596542, "central": 787.7362072710126, "high": 1567.4166197151665 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 334.002751596542, "central": 912.428692950634, "high": 1970.9220558704749 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 330.37228690527525, "central": 1045.3714265831882, "high": 2451.365201216704 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 330.37228690527525, "central": 1210.8455541349565, "high": 3082.4285523713193 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 334.002751596542, "central": 1417.925173087823, "high": 3918.541549287916 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 334.002751596542, "central": 1642.3716473111413, "high": 4927.3051396761875 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 326.7418222140085, "central": 1860.9908912799615, "high": 6061.067805206136 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 330.37228690527525, "central": 2179.521997442921, "high": 7706.071380928297 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 334.002751596542, "central": 2552.2653115580806, "high": 9796.353873219789 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 334.002751596542, "central": 2956.2689651600544, "high": 12318.262849190469 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 326.7418222140085, "central": 3349.7836043039297, "high": 15152.669513015338 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "counterpoint-h1" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. 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Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.2, "central": 1.8, "high": 2.5 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 10000, "central": 50000, "high": 200000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "figure", "name": "Figure", "coverage": "Figure 01/02/03, including internal research fleets.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 2.4861878453038675, "central": 3.8674033149171265, "high": 8.541266571842748 }, "documentedFloor": 350, "floorHistory": [ { "date": "2026-04-29T00:00:00Z", "value": 350, "note": "Completed Figure 03 cohort; older models not added to sample." } ], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output.", "assumptions": [ "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 2, "high": 10 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 10, "high": 30 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 10, "central": 50, "high": 100 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 50, "central": 150, "high": 350 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 450, "central": 700, "high": 1300 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Prototype and older-generation cohorts are reconstructed. H1 2026 includes the >350 Figure 03 milestone and uncertain subsequent builds; a demonstrated hourly cycle does not establish 24/7 output." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 228.72928176795583, "central": 355.80110497237564, "high": 785.7965246095328 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. 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Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 228.72928176795583, "central": 630.8408349984244, "high": 3143.186098438131 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. 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Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 249.6342027087644, "central": 1240.590266392779, "high": 8793.639418741604 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 269.48609509947164, "central": 1577.102087496061, "high": 12572.744393752524 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. 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Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 300.5818268853393, "central": 2439.4082767306195, "high": 24598.84772690711 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 324.5244635213937, "central": 3101.4756659819473, "high": 35174.55767496642 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 350.3319236293131, "central": 3942.755218740152, "high": 50290.977575010096 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. 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Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 390.7563749509411, "central": 6098.520691826547, "high": 98395.39090762845 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 396.44674428633033, "central": 7753.689164954869, "high": 110996.1190168176 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 400.8033019158504, "central": 9856.888046850381, "high": 112215.85658843096 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 400.8033019158504, "central": 12394.380542751804, "high": 112215.85658843096 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "figure-350", "figure-botq", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 6, "central": 2, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.3, "central": 2.5, "high": 4 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 12000, "central": 100000, "high": 500000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "engineai", "name": "EngineAI", "coverage": "General-purpose PM01/SE01/T800 bipeds; stationary lower-body-free platforms excluded.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 1.1049723756906078, "central": 3.614942760216324, "high": 8.873390975778054 }, "documentedFloor": null, "floorHistory": [], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "General-purpose bipeds only. Shipment estimates are proxies; 2024 and H1 2026 allowances are explicitly modeled.", "assumptions": [ "General-purpose bipeds only. 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Shipment estimates are proxies; 2024 and H1 2026 allowances are explicitly modeled." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 101.65745856353591, "central": 332.5747339399018, "high": 816.351969771581 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 101.65745856353591, "central": 395.5002398714682, "high": 1074.3796128389565 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 101.73996549153775, "central": 460.10709708303204, "high": 1383.2247604923691 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 107.6677854413612, "central": 553.242218331216, "high": 1840.6531187048474 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 113.92722704789202, "central": 665.1494678798036, "high": 2449.0559093147426 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 119.24023916182652, "central": 791.0004797429364, "high": 3223.138838516869 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 123.4444914630658, "central": 930.4387963234648, "high": 4195.78177349352 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 129.20134252963342, "central": 1106.484436662432, "high": 5521.959356114542 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 136.7126724574704, "central": 1330.2989357596073, "high": 7347.167727944229 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 143.0882869941918, "central": 1582.0009594858727, "high": 9669.416515550607 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 146.50555030781433, "central": 1840.4283883321282, "high": 12449.022844431322 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 155.04161103556012, "central": 2212.968873324864, "high": 16565.878068343623 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 164.0552069489645, "central": 2660.5978715192146, "high": 22041.503183832683 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 171.70594439303017, "central": 3164.0019189717455, "high": 29008.24954665182 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 175.8066603693772, "central": 3680.8567766642564, "high": 37347.06853329397 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 186.04993324267215, "central": 4425.937746649728, "high": 49697.63420503088 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 196.86624833875737, "central": 5321.195743038429, "high": 56107.92829421548 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 206.04713327163623, "central": 6328.003837943491, "high": 56107.92829421548 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.2, "central": 2, "high": 3 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 10000, "central": 75000, "high": 250000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "fourier", "name": "Fourier", "coverage": "General-purpose GR/N bipedal platforms; rehabilitation devices excluded.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 0.8287292817679558, "central": 2.378430577509096, "high": 5.655339590899204 }, "documentedFloor": null, "floorHistory": [], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances.", "assumptions": [ "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 10, "central": 60, "high": 150 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 50, "central": 150, "high": 300 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 250, "central": 400, "high": 700 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 150, "central": 400, "high": 900 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "GR-series bipeds only; rehabilitation devices excluded. Early cohorts and inventory are weakly evidenced reconstruction allowances." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 76.24309392265194, "central": 218.81561313083682, "high": 520.2912423627267 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 76.24309392265194, "central": 253.45241470850945, "high": 673.0324803733175 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 76.30497411865332, "central": 287.18995235801873, "high": 851.6873829925685 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 80.7508390810209, "central": 336.34598725971006, "high": 1113.9574550599245 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 85.44542028591901, "central": 393.8681036355063, "high": 1456.815478615635 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 89.4301793713699, "central": 456.214346475317, "high": 1884.4909450452885 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 92.58336859729934, "central": 522.6857132915941, "high": 2411.2216131834043 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 96.9010068972251, "central": 605.4227770674783, "high": 3119.080874167789 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 102.5345043431028, "central": 708.9625865439115, "high": 4079.083340123778 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 107.31621524564386, "central": 821.1858236555706, "high": 5276.574646126808 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 109.87916273086074, "central": 930.4954456399807, "high": 6677.229082661736 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 116.28120827667011, "central": 1089.7609987214605, "high": 8733.426447669806 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 123.04140521172339, "central": 1276.1326557790403, "high": 11421.433352346578 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 128.77945829477264, "central": 1478.1344825800272, "high": 14774.409009155062 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 131.8549952770329, "central": 1674.8918021519648, "high": 18696.241431452858 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 139.5374499320041, "central": 1961.5697976986291, "high": 24453.594053475463 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 147.64968625406803, "central": 2297.0387804022726, "high": 31980.01338657041 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 154.53534995372718, "central": 2660.6420686440492, "high": 33664.756976529294 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.2, "central": 1.8, "high": 2.8 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 8000, "central": 50000, "high": 150000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "agility", "name": "Agility Robotics", "coverage": "Digit and predecessor research bipeds; internal fleets included.", "anchor": { "low": 1, "central": 8, "high": 30 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 0.44198895027624313, "central": 0.9944751381215469, "high": 2.535254564508016 }, "documentedFloor": 2, "floorHistory": [ { "date": "2020-01-06T00:00:00Z", "value": 2, "note": "Ford's two Digits, documented twice but counted once." } ], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance.", "assumptions": [ "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2020-01-06T00:00:00Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 1, "high": 1 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "One modeled early-January build plus opening inventory accommodates Ford's two dated deliveries; precise build dates are unknown." }, { "start": "2020-01-06T00:00:00Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 9, "high": 29 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2, "central": 10, "high": 35 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2, "central": 15, "high": 40 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 10, "central": 35, "high": 80 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 30, "central": 70, "high": 150 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 100, "central": 200, "high": 400 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 80, "central": 180, "high": 400 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "Only complete Digits enter this row; leg-only Cassie robots excluded. Ford's two deliveries are one observation. Remaining early production is an uncertain research/pilot allowance." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 40.66298342541437, "central": 91.49171270718232, "high": 233.24341993473746 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 40.66298342541437, "central": 99.77242018197053, "high": 306.9656036682733 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 39.77900552486188, "central": 116.07072257097434, "high": 395.20707442639116 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 40.22099447513812, "central": 139.56581944851973, "high": 525.9008910585279 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 41.60034144542877, "central": 167.79654094441275, "high": 699.7302598042123 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 43.540379167495516, "central": 199.54484036394106, "high": 920.8968110048198 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 45.07555504938337, "central": 234.72079453241477, "high": 1198.79479242672 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 47.17765984228789, "central": 279.13163889703947, "high": 1577.7026731755836 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 49.92040973451451, "central": 335.5930818888255, "high": 2099.1907794126373 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 52.24845500099463, "central": 399.0896807278821, "high": 2762.6904330144603 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 53.4962631355319, "central": 464.28289028389736, "high": 3556.8636698375203 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 56.61319181074546, "central": 558.2632777940789, "high": 4733.1080195267505 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 59.90449168141741, "central": 671.186163777651, "high": 6297.572338237912 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 62.69814600119355, "central": 798.1793614557643, "high": 8288.071299043379 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 64.19551576263827, "central": 928.5657805677947, "high": 10670.591009512562 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 67.93583017289454, "central": 1116.5265555881579, "high": 14199.324058580252 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 71.88539001770089, "central": 1342.372327555302, "high": 18892.717014713737 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 75.23777520143226, "central": 1596.3587229115285, "high": 22443.171317686196 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "ford-2020", "ford-report", "omdia-2026" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 4, "central": 1, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.2, "central": 2, "high": 3 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 10000, "central": 30000, "high": 100000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "tesla", "name": "Tesla", "coverage": "Optimus bipedal prototypes and internal fleets.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 0.27624309392265195, "central": 1.6574585635359116, "high": 10.74728912694207 }, "documentedFloor": null, "floorHistory": [], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed.", "assumptions": [ "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 2, "high": 5 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2, "central": 10, "high": 50 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 5, "central": 40, "high": 150 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 50, "central": 200, "high": 1000 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 50, "central": 300, "high": 1500 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "Actual internal fleet totals are not public. These are wide editorial prototype/pilot scenarios, not a claim that management's targets were achieved or missed." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 25.414364640883978, "central": 152.48618784530387, "high": 988.7505996786704 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 25.414364640883978, "central": 152.48618784530387, "high": 1662.8736696995093 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 24.861878453038674, "central": 180.02663070673415, "high": 2735.813167571948 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 25.138121546961326, "central": 265.1177252854809, "high": 4652.193981617324 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 25.414364640883978, "central": 390.3806908584873, "high": 7910.004797429363 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 25.414364640883978, "central": 568.5798397356479, "high": 13302.989357596074 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 26.445040055604043, "central": 819.1211697156403, "high": 22129.688733248644 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 29.266247695287774, "central": 1193.029763784664, "high": 37217.551852938595 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 32.74434396406428, "central": 1756.713108863193, "high": 63280.0383794349 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 36.23757343747829, "central": 2558.609278810415, "high": 106423.9148607686 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 39.23165282974225, "central": 3645.539271811366, "high": 175092.04272460466 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 43.89937154293167, "central": 5368.633937030988, "high": 297740.41482350876 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 49.11651594609642, "central": 7905.208989884368, "high": 448863.42635372386 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 54.356360156217434, "central": 11513.741754646868, "high": 448863.42635372386 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 58.84747924461338, "central": 16404.926723151148, "high": 439105.52578081685 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 65.84905731439748, "central": 24158.852716639452, "high": 443984.4760672704 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 73.67477391914463, "central": 35573.440454479656, "high": 448863.42635372386 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 81.53454023432616, "central": 51811.83789591091, "high": 448863.42635372386 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q2", "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 6, "central": 2, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.5, "central": 4.5, "high": 8 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 250000, "central": 1000000, "high": 2000000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "atlas", "name": "Boston Dynamics / Atlas", "coverage": "Complete hydraulic and electric Atlas platforms.", "anchor": { "low": 7, "central": 20, "high": 60 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 0.027624309392265196, "central": 0.16574585635359115, "high": 0.7046260258886489 }, "documentedFloor": 7, "floorHistory": [ { "date": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 7, "note": "Seven pre-2020 DARPA Atlas platforms." } ], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions.", "assumptions": [ "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 3, "high": 10 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 3, "high": 10 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 3, "high": 10 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 3, "high": 10 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 10, "high": 30 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2, "central": 20, "high": 50 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 5, "central": 30, "high": 100 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "Hydraulic and electric Atlas are distinct physical cohorts. Seven DARPA platforms form an old sample floor; later prototype and product cohorts are assumptions." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.541436464088398, "central": 15.248618784530386, "high": 64.82559438175569 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.541436464088398, "central": 15.248618784530386, "high": 105.44379241949146 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.4861878453038675, "central": 17.445912696552515, "high": 167.78387086246119 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.5138121546961325, "central": 24.12734802858926, "high": 275.9456819066498 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.541436464088398, "central": 33.363609922924155, "high": 453.7791606722898 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.541436464088398, "central": 45.63415844861636, "high": 738.1065469364402 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.6445040055604037, "central": 61.73914659835528, "high": 1187.5369526598643 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 2.9266247695287775, "central": 84.44571810006242, "high": 1931.619773346548 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3.274434396406427, "central": 116.77263473023456, "high": 3176.4541247060283 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3.623757343747829, "central": 159.71955457015724, "high": 5166.74582855508 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 3.923165282974225, "central": 213.7124305327683, "high": 8221.409672260597 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 4.3899371542931656, "central": 295.56001335021847, "high": 13521.338413425836 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 4.9116515946096415, "central": 408.70422155582094, "high": 22235.178872942197 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 5.435636015621744, "central": 559.0184409955502, "high": 22443.171317686196 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 5.8847479244613385, "central": 747.993506864689, "high": 21955.27628904084 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 6.58490573143975, "central": 1034.4600467257646, "high": 22199.22380336352 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.367477391914463, "central": 1430.464775445373, "high": 22443.171317686196 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 8.153454023432616, "central": 1956.564543484426, "high": 22443.171317686196 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "darpa-atlas", "hyundai-2028" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 6, "central": 2, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.5, "central": 3.5, "high": 7 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 10000, "central": 30000, "high": 100000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "research", "name": "Legacy research programs", "coverage": "Honda, PAL, HUBO/HRP and other institutional bipeds; excludes all other rows.", "anchor": { "low": 100, "central": 500, "high": 2000 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 0.08287292817679558, "central": 0.5031969733294804, "high": 1.712716962309625 }, "documentedFloor": 1, "floorHistory": [ { "date": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 1, "note": "ASIMO existence before 2020; a sample, not a fleet census." } ], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios.", "assumptions": [ "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 10, "central": 40, "high": 150 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 10, "central": 50, "high": 200 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 10, "central": 60, "high": 250 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 20, "central": 80, "high": 300 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 30, "central": 100, "high": 350 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 30, "central": 150, "high": 500 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 15, "central": 90, "high": 300 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "Disjoint legacy/research allowance for Honda, PAL, HUBO, HRP and comparable institutional bipeds, excluding every named maker. Program evidence supports existence, not these quantities. All quantities are editorial scenarios." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 46.2941215463122, "high": 157.5699605324855 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 47.41044359971748, "high": 168.25162380370932 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.458563535911602, "central": 47.49816942003589, "high": 175.75180115182928 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.541436464088397, "central": 49.18400912628329, "high": 189.75118879516654 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 50.92353370094342, "high": 204.84094869223122 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 52.151487959689234, "high": 218.7271109448221 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.541436464088397, "central": 52.82851954383993, "high": 231.01597862512676 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.541436464088397, "central": 54.10241003891163, "high": 246.6765454337165 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 56.01588707103777, "high": 266.2932332999006 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 57.36663675565817, "high": 284.34524422826877 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.458563535911602, "central": 57.472784998243455, "high": 297.02054394659154 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.541436464088397, "central": 59.512651042802794, "high": 320.67950906383146 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 61.61747577814156, "high": 346.1812032898708 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 63.10330043122399, "high": 369.6488174967493 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.458563535911602, "central": 63.2200634980678, "high": 386.12670713056906 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.541436464088397, "central": 65.46391614708308, "high": 416.8833617829809 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 67.77922335595571, "high": 450.03556427683196 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 7.624309392265193, "central": 69.4136304743464, "high": 480.5434627457743 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "honda-history", "pal-history", "kaist-history" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1, "central": 1.1, "high": 1.3 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 1000, "central": 3000, "high": 10000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } }, { "id": "other-makers", "name": "Other manufacturers", "coverage": "All other general-purpose biped makers, including 1X, Apptronik, Boston Dynamics, Noetix and newer research fleets; excludes every named row above.", "anchor": { "low": 0, "central": 50, "high": 300 }, "dailyRate": { "low": 3.314917127071823, "central": 9.639847360576864, "high": 25.35254564508016 }, "documentedFloor": null, "floorHistory": [], "floorExplanation": "A disjoint reported sample at the latest historical cutoff; consult dated observations. Unknown does not mean zero.", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "anchorMethod": "Pre-2020 opening balance is an explicit research-fleet scenario. It is retained cumulatively; retirement does not undo production.", "rateMethod": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total.", "assumptions": [ "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total.", "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling.", "Historical output is spread uniformly within each dated period solely for interpolation. Digit 2020 is split at the dated Ford delivery to respect that observed minimum. Forecast output is constant inside each quarter; it changes at quarter boundaries." ], "series": [ { "start": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 10, "high": 100 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total." }, { "start": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 0, "central": 20, "high": 150 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total." }, { "start": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 1, "central": 50, "high": 250 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total." }, { "start": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 50, "central": 180, "high": 600 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total." }, { "start": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 150, "central": 500, "high": 1000 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total." }, { "start": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 500, "central": 1400, "high": 3000 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total." }, { "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 600, "central": 1600, "high": 4000 }, "evidence": "reconstructed", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "Disjoint emerging-maker cohort: Apptronik, 1X bipeds, newer Chinese, European, Indian and other programs. Excludes the named makers and legacy research row. EVE and other wheeled products are excluded. Missing coverage is modeled, never an invented reported total." }, { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 304.97237569060775, "central": 886.8659571730715, "high": 2332.4341993473745 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 304.97237569060775, "central": 1054.667306323915, "high": 3069.6560366827325 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 305.2198964746133, "central": 1226.9522588880855, "high": 3952.070744263912 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 323.0033563240836, "central": 1475.3125822165762, "high": 5259.0089105852785 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 341.78168114367605, "central": 1773.731914346143, "high": 6997.302598042123 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2027-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 357.7207174854796, "central": 2109.33461264783, "high": 9208.9681100482 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 370.33347438919736, "central": 2481.1701235292394, "high": 11987.947924267199 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 387.6040275889004, "central": 2950.6251644331523, "high": 15777.026731755834 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 410.1380173724112, "central": 3547.463828692286, "high": 20991.90779412637 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2028-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 429.26486098257544, "central": 4218.66922529566, "high": 27626.904330144596 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 439.51665092344297, "central": 4907.809035552342, "high": 35568.6366983752 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 465.12483310668046, "central": 5901.250328866305, "high": 47331.0801952675 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 492.16562084689355, "central": 7094.927657384572, "high": 62975.72338237911 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2029-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 515.1178331790906, "central": 8437.33845059132, "high": 82880.71299043379 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 527.4199811081317, "central": 9815.618071104684, "high": 106705.91009512563 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-04-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 558.1497997280164, "central": 11802.50065773261, "high": 141993.2405858025 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 590.5987450162721, "central": 14189.855314769144, "high": 168323.78488264646 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." }, { "start": "2030-10-01T00:00:00.000Z", "end": "2031-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "units": { "low": 618.1413998149087, "central": 16874.67690118264, "high": 168323.78488264646 }, "evidence": "forecast", "sourceIds": [ "omdia-2026", "apptronik-2023", "global-demand-report" ], "method": "min(H1 2026 daily baseline × 365.2425 × annual growth^max(0, (quarter index + 0.5 - delay quarters) / 4), 2030 nominal annual capacity × utilization × yield × component availability × demand share) × period days / 365.2425. During ramp delays the H1 baseline is still subject to the execution/demand ceiling. Inputs are scenarios, not measured plant telemetry." } ], "forecast": { "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "delayQuarters": { "low": 2, "central": 0, "high": 0 }, "annualGrowth": { "low": 1.2, "central": 2, "high": 3 }, "capacity2030": { "low": 25000, "central": 150000, "high": 750000 }, "utilization": { "low": 0.4, "central": 0.7, "high": 0.9 }, "yield": { "low": 0.85, "central": 0.95, "high": 0.99 }, "componentAvailability": { "low": 0.65, "central": 0.9, "high": 1 }, "demandShare": { "low": 0.6, "central": 0.85, "high": 1 }, "basis": "All growth, delays, capacity paths, utilization, yield, component and demand factors are explicit editorial assumptions, informed by the linked disclosures. Capacity2030 is a scenario ceiling, not installed capacity. During ramp delays, baseline output remains subject to the same execution and demand ceiling." } } ], "sources": [ { "id": "unitree-2025", "publisher": "Unitree Robotics", "title": "Clarification regarding 2025 sales data", "url": "https://shop.unitree.com/blogs/news/clarification-regarding-unitrees-2025-sales-data", "date": "2026-01-22", "finding": "2025 humanoid production exceeded 6,500; deliveries exceeded 5,500. Wheeled robots are explicitly excluded.", "limitation": "Both values are thresholds, not exact totals. Their ratio does not establish an inventory ratio." }, { "id": "agibot-5000", "publisher": "AGIBOT", "title": "5,000th robot: product-family breakdown", "url": "https://www.agibot.com/article/231/detail/31.html", "date": "2025-12-08", "finding": "Cumulative output: A-series 1,742; X-series 1,846; G-series 1,412.", "limitation": "G-series is wheeled. A-series also has an A2-W variant; its share is not disclosed. Only X-series enters the direct biped floor." }, { "id": "agibot-10000", "publisher": "AGIBOT", "title": "10,000th robot production milestone", "url": "https://www.agibot.com/article/231/detail/53.html", "date": "2026-03-30", "finding": "Cumulative mixed-portfolio production reached 10,000.", "limitation": "Includes wheeled robots; not a biped-only count." }, { "id": "agibot-15000", "publisher": "AGIBOT", "title": "15,000th robot production milestone", "url": "https://agibot.com/article/231/detail/82.html", "date": "2026-06-28", "finding": "Cumulative mixed-portfolio production reached 15,000; the milestone robot was a G2.", "limitation": "The 5,000 additions over 90 days measure mixed output. The biped share after December is undisclosed." }, { "id": "counterpoint-h1", "publisher": "Counterpoint Research", "title": "H1 2026 humanoid shipments", "url": "https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-humanoid-robot-shipments-soar-nearly-300-percent-yoy-in-h1-2026", "date": "2026-08-20", "finding": "H1 shipments: Unitree >7,000; UBTECH around 1,000; Leju 650. Global total >22,000 includes wheeled models.", "limitation": "Shipments do not directly measure production. The page says August 19; its body dateline says August 20." }, { "id": "figure-350", "publisher": "Figure", "title": "Ramping Figure 03 production", "url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/ramping-figure-03-production", "date": "2026-04-29", "finding": "Over 350 Figure 03 robots delivered; a one-robot-per-hour cycle demonstrated.", "limitation": "A demonstrated cycle is not 24/7 realized output. Older Figure generations and subsequent output are not quantified here." }, { "id": "ubtech-2025", "publisher": "UBTECH", "title": "UBTECH and Hitachi partnership; 2025 sales disclosure", "url": "https://www.ubtrobot.com/en/about/news/826577556529221", "date": "2026-07-13", "finding": "2025 full-sized humanoid sales totaled 1,079 under the company definition.", "limitation": "Sales, rather than production; the statement does not establish an exclusively bipedal product mix." }, { "id": "omdia-2026", "publisher": "Omdia", "title": "General-purpose embodied intelligent robots, 2026 · table 1, page 7", "url": "https://www.agibot.com.cn/public/uploads/file/Omdia%20Market%20Radar%20-%20General-purpose%20Embodied%20Intelligent%20Robot%20-%202026.pdf", "date": "2026-01", "finding": "Analyst estimates of manufacturer shipments in 2024 and 2025 provide historical scale for smaller manufacturers.", "limitation": "Mixed coverage and estimates, not audited builds. Its Unitree 2025 estimate is superseded by Unitree’s later disclosure. Hosted by AGIBOT; table visually checked." }, { "id": "tesla-q2", "publisher": "Tesla / SEC", "title": "Q2 2026 update", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026049213/exhibit991.htm", "date": "2026-07-22", "finding": "Describes the Optimus manufacturing ramp and planned line.", "limitation": "No current robot output total is established; design capacity is excluded from the count." }, { "id": "interact-2025", "publisher": "Interact Analysis", "title": "Humanoid production in 2025", "url": "https://interact-analysis.prezly.com/humanoid-robot-production-surges-tenfold-in-2025-but-commercial-deployments-remain-limited", "date": "2026-06-11", "finding": "Global production exceeded 20,000 in 2025 under the publisher’s coverage.", "limitation": "Used as context only. It is neither added to manufacturer rows nor silently treated as biped-only." }, { "id": "unitree-ipo", "publisher": "Unitree · prospectus (Chinese)", "date": "2026-03-20", "title": "IPO application, production table p.134", "url": "https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202603201820669962_1.pdf#page=135", "finding": "The company reports 9 humanoids produced in 2023, 545 in 2024 and 3,701 in January–September 2025; sales were 5, 410 and 3,551 respectively.", "limitation": "Company filing reproduced by a financial-document host. This dated application is not the final prospectus; later full-year disclosure replaces the partial 2025 period. Production and revenue-recognized sales have different scopes." }, { "id": "ford-2020", "publisher": "Ford", "date": "2020-01-06", "title": "First two commercial Digits", "url": "https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/feu/gb/en/news/2020/01/06/agility-robotics-sell-first-digit-robots-to-ford.html", "finding": "Ford was the first customer for two commercial Digit robots in 2020.", "limitation": "A customer delivery minimum, not total Agility production. The old newsroom URL may redirect; Ford's 2020 sustainability report also documents the acquisition." }, { "id": "ford-report", "publisher": "Ford", "date": "2020", "title": "Creating tomorrow together · sustainability report", "url": "https://corporate.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-report-2020/creating-tomorrow-together.html", "finding": "Ford describes acquiring two upright Digit robots for warehousing and delivery research.", "limitation": "Same two robots as the launch announcement; never add these records." }, { "id": "honda-history", "publisher": "Honda (Japanese)", "date": "2000-11-20", "title": "ASIMO announcement", "url": "https://global.honda/jp/news/2000/c001120b.html", "finding": "Documents a complete research humanoid program before the chart starts.", "limitation": "Establishes existence, not an all-time fleet count. Opening-balance quantities are editorial assumptions." }, { "id": "pal-history", "publisher": "PAL Robotics", "date": "2016-10-04", "title": "TALOS introduction", "url": "https://pal-robotics.com/blog/talos-robot-new-humanoid-pal-robotics/", "finding": "European full-size research humanoid program; first platform intended for LAAS-CNRS.", "limitation": "Announcement and intended delivery do not establish yearly production totals." }, { "id": "kaist-history", "publisher": "KAIST (Korean)", "date": "2021-03-12", "title": "Rainbow Robotics and the HUBO program", "url": "https://me.kaist.ac.kr/news/news_020100.html?bmain=view&uid=286", "finding": "KAIST identifies the founders of Rainbow Robotics with its bipedal HUBO program.", "limitation": "Qualitative program evidence; no robot quantity is supplied. Quadrupeds and robot arms are excluded." }, { "id": "darpa-atlas", "publisher": "DARPA", "date": "2013-07-11", "title": "Atlas robot debut", "url": "https://www.darpa.mil/about/innovation-timeline/atlas-robot-debut", "finding": "Seven Atlas platforms were provided to qualifying DARPA Robotics Challenge teams.", "limitation": "A historical sample, not Boston Dynamics' total production. Subsequent reuse does not create additional robots." }, { "id": "agibot-962", "publisher": "China Mobile Robot Alliance", "date": "2024-12-22", "title": "AGIBOT approaches 1,000 mixed robots", "url": "https://cnmra.com/agibot-achieves-nearly-1000-units-in-mass-production/", "finding": "Reports 962 cumulative robots as of December 15, 2024, covering both bipedal and wheeled models.", "limitation": "Mixed-form total cannot enter the bipedal floor. The article's anticipated 200 biped deliveries are a target, not a completed delivery count." }, { "id": "tesla-allhands", "publisher": "Tesla", "date": "2025-03-20", "title": "Q1 2025 all-hands recording", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGJysv_Qzkw", "finding": "Original recording associated with Musk's 2025 and 2026 production ambitions.", "limitation": "Video source reference; numerical statements were cross-checked against contemporary reporting. Targets do not establish achieved output." }, { "id": "tesla-allhands-report", "publisher": "Not a Tesla App", "date": "2025-03-21", "title": "All-hands recap and replay", "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2608/tesla-hosts-public-all-hands-meeting-for-q1-2025-recap-replay", "finding": "Contemporary recap reports ambitions of 5,000 robots in 2025 and 50,000 in 2026.", "limitation": "Secondary reporting of management ambitions; actual annual output remains unverified." }, { "id": "tesla-q1-call", "publisher": "Tesla", "date": "2025-04-22", "title": "Q1 2025 financial results webcast", "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/webcast-2025-04-22", "finding": "Original webcast for Musk's longer-term Optimus production discussion.", "limitation": "The linked contemporaneous report provides the transcribed numerical statement; this is not achieved output." }, { "id": "tesla-million-report", "publisher": "The Register", "date": "2025-04-23", "title": "Optimus ramp and component constraints", "url": "https://www.theregister.com/offbeat/2025/04/23/teslas-optimus-robot-trips-over-china-export-licensing/1555778", "finding": "Reports Musk's expectation of one million Optimus units annually by 2030, potentially 2029, while discussing component constraints.", "limitation": "An annual-output ambition, not cumulative robots built; no precise ramp probability can be inferred." }, { "id": "hyundai-2028", "publisher": "Hyundai Motor Group", "date": "2026-01-05", "title": "CES 2026 robotics strategy", "url": "https://www.hyundai.com/worldwide/en/newsroom/detail/0000001100", "finding": "Targets a production system capable of 30,000 robot units annually by 2028 and phased Atlas deployment.", "limitation": "A future production-system target; the release's robot scope and timing do not prove 30,000 current Atlas units." }, { "id": "figure-botq", "publisher": "Figure", "date": "2025-03-15", "title": "BotQ manufacturing plan", "url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/botq", "finding": "Describes a 12,000-unit annual production-line design and supply-chain capability for 100,000 robots over four years.", "limitation": "Capacity and supply-chain capability are separate from actual completed production or contracted demand." }, { "id": "apptronik-2023", "publisher": "Apptronik", "date": "2023-08-23", "title": "Apollo introduction", "url": "https://apptronik.com/news-collection/apptronik-unveils-apollo", "finding": "Documents the Apollo program's public introduction in 2023.", "limitation": "No production total disclosed; represented within the disjoint emerging-maker scenario." }, { "id": "interact-outlook", "publisher": "Interact Analysis", "date": "2026-05-21", "title": "Humanoid revenue outlook through 2035", "url": "https://interact-analysis.prezly.com/humanoid-robot-revenue-to-reach-15bn-by-2035", "finding": "Analyst outlook distinguishes future demand from limited present commercial workforce adoption.", "limitation": "Market shipments and applications differ from all-time bipedal production. Used as a constraint/context check, not an added count." }, { "id": "omdia-old-forecast", "publisher": "Omdia", "date": "2024-07-25", "title": "Dated 2024 humanoid shipment forecast", "url": "https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2024/jul/omdia-global-humanoid-robot-shipments-to-exceed-10000-units-by-2027-and-reach-38000-units-in-2030", "finding": "A historical forecast put 2030 annual humanoid shipments at 38,000.", "limitation": "A dated forecast with an earlier market definition; not a current estimate or a comparable bipedal-production outcome." }, { "id": "global-demand-report", "publisher": "Associated Press", "date": "2026-06", "title": "China scales humanoids; demand remains a constraint", "url": "https://apnews.com/article/7d542b5ee92caa9d79efa28de89afbbe", "finding": "Reporting examines Chinese manufacturing scale, customer demand and differing global forecasts.", "limitation": "Not an additive production ledger. Quantities attributed to analysts retain their shipment definitions." }, { "id": "tesla-jan25-call", "publisher": "Tesla", "date": "2025-01-29", "title": "Q4 2024 results webcast", "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/webcast-2025-01-29", "finding": "Original webcast associated with the early 2025 Optimus internal plan.", "limitation": "Numerical statement cross-checked in contemporary reporting; an ambition, not a completed output disclosure." }, { "id": "tesla-jan25-report", "publisher": "Electrek", "date": "2025-01-31", "title": "Musk's internal 2025 Optimus plan", "url": "https://electrek.co/2025/01/31/elon-musk-says-tesla-aims-to-build-10000-optimus-robots-this-year/", "finding": "Reports a 10,000-unit internal 2025 plan, with Musk expecting several thousand rather than full achievement.", "limitation": "Contemporaneous reporting of a management target. Outcome is not verified by this article." } ], "observations": [ { "id": "unitree-produced-2025", "manufacturer": "Unitree", "date": "2025-12-31", "period": "Calendar 2025", "value": 6500, "qualifier": "more-than", "measure": "production", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "unitree-2025", "treatment": "Historical production floor. Not added to shipments of the same robots." }, { "id": "unitree-shipped-2025", "manufacturer": "Unitree", "date": "2025-12-31", "period": "Calendar 2025", "value": 5500, "qualifier": "more-than", "measure": "shipments", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "unitree-2025", "treatment": "Can be combined with H1 2026 deliveries because the reporting periods are disjoint; production and inventory stay separate." }, { "id": "unitree-shipped-h1", "manufacturer": "Unitree", "date": "2026-06-30", "period": "H1 2026", "value": 7000, "qualifier": "more-than", "measure": "shipments", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "counterpoint-h1", "treatment": "Delivery proxy and cumulative-build floor, not measured production during H1." }, { "id": "agibot-x-2025", "manufacturer": "AGIBOT", "date": "2025-12-08", "period": "Cumulative X-series", "value": 1846, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "cumulative-production", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "agibot-5000", "treatment": "Directly identified biped family; included in the reported sample floor." }, { "id": "agibot-mixed-10000", "manufacturer": "AGIBOT", "date": "2026-03-30", "period": "Cumulative mixed portfolio", "value": 10000, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "cumulative-production", "formFactor": "mixed", "sourceId": "agibot-10000", "treatment": "Used only with the later milestone to derive a mixed-output interval." }, { "id": "agibot-mixed-15000", "manufacturer": "AGIBOT", "date": "2026-06-28", "period": "Cumulative mixed portfolio", "value": 15000, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "cumulative-production", "formFactor": "mixed", "sourceId": "agibot-15000", "treatment": "Apply a disclosed model-specific biped-share assumption; never count all 15,000 as bipeds." }, { "id": "figure-03-350", "manufacturer": "Figure", "date": "2026-04-29", "period": "Cumulative Figure 03", "value": 350, "qualifier": "more-than", "measure": "cumulative-production", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "figure-350", "treatment": "Direct completed-robot floor; extrapolation is modeled separately." }, { "id": "ubtech-sales-2025", "manufacturer": "UBTECH", "date": "2025-12-31", "period": "Calendar 2025", "value": 1079, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "sales", "formFactor": "mixed", "sourceId": "ubtech-2025", "treatment": "Sales proxy under the company definition; unknown biped mix prevents a direct biped floor." }, { "id": "leju-h1", "manufacturer": "Leju Robotics", "date": "2026-06-30", "period": "H1 2026", "value": 650, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "shipments", "formFactor": "mixed", "sourceId": "counterpoint-h1", "treatment": "Model scope adjustment; not automatically treated as biped production." }, { "id": "unitree-produced-2023", "manufacturer": "Unitree", "date": "2023-12-31", "period": "Calendar 2023", "value": 9, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "production", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "unitree-ipo", "treatment": "Exact annual production from the March 2026 filing. Sales are separate; this annual cohort is included once." }, { "id": "unitree-produced-2024", "manufacturer": "Unitree", "date": "2024-12-31", "period": "Calendar 2024", "value": 545, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "production", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "unitree-ipo", "treatment": "Exact annual production from the March 2026 filing. Sales are separate; this annual cohort is included once." }, { "id": "unitree-produced-9m-2025", "manufacturer": "Unitree", "date": "2025-09-30", "period": "January–September 2025", "value": 3701, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "production", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "unitree-ipo", "treatment": "Contained in the later full-year production disclosure; never add both periods." }, { "id": "ford-digit-2020", "manufacturer": "Agility Robotics", "date": "2020-01-06", "period": "First Ford delivery", "value": 2, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "shipments", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "ford-2020", "treatment": "Ford's launch announcement and sustainability report describe the same two robots. Count once." }, { "id": "darpa-atlas-2013", "manufacturer": "Boston Dynamics", "date": "2013-07-11", "period": "DARPA Atlas platforms", "value": 7, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "shipments", "formFactor": "bipedal", "sourceId": "darpa-atlas", "treatment": "Already in the pre-2020 opening balance. Not an additional 2020 shipment." }, { "id": "agibot-mixed-962", "manufacturer": "AGIBOT", "date": "2024-12-15", "period": "Cumulative mixed portfolio", "value": 962, "qualifier": "reported", "measure": "cumulative-production", "formFactor": "mixed", "sourceId": "agibot-962", "treatment": "Mixed milestone used for the dated backtest. Included in later milestones, never summed." } ], "floorHistory": [ { "date": "2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 8, "note": "Boston Dynamics / Atlas: Seven pre-2020 DARPA Atlas platforms. Legacy research programs: ASIMO existence before 2020; a sample, not a fleet census." }, { "date": "2020-01-06T00:00:00Z", "value": 10, "note": "Agility Robotics: Ford's two Digits, documented twice but counted once." }, { "date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 19, "note": "Unitree: 2023 production, disclosed March 2026." }, { "date": "2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 564, "note": "Unitree: 9 + 545 produced in disjoint years; disclosed March 2026." }, { "date": "2025-12-08T00:00:00Z", "value": 2410, "note": "AGIBOT: X-series biped sample; mixed portfolio excluded." }, { "date": "2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 8910, "note": "Unitree: Earlier 554 builds + >6,500 produced during 2025." }, { "date": "2026-04-29T00:00:00Z", "value": 9260, "note": "Figure: Completed Figure 03 cohort; older models not added to sample." }, { "date": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "value": 14706, "note": "Unitree: Replace production floor with disjoint 2025/H1 2026 deliveries: >5,500 + >7,000. Never add these deliveries to potentially overlapping production/inventory." } ], "revision": { "previousModel": "2026-09-05-draft-1", "previousAnchor": 36969.53333333333, "previousAnchorAt": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "previousDailyRate": 122.23842175635107, "changes": [ "Reconstructed annual cohorts and pre-2020 opening balance.", "Unitree 2023/2024 production replaces shipment proxies.", "Quarterly constrained ramps replace indefinite constant production.", "Earlier snapshot and its calculation remain preserved." ] }, "targets": [ { "id": "tesla-2025-initial", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-01-29", "targetAt": "2025-12-31", "value": 10000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "revised", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-jan25-call", "tesla-jan25-report", "tesla-allhands-report" ], "description": "Initial 2025 internal plan: roughly 10,000", "outcome": "Musk qualified this as ambitious. March remarks focused on 5,000, with 10,000 as an upper ambition. No comparable actual full-year total has been established." }, { "id": "tesla-2025", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-03-20", "targetAt": "2025-12-31", "value": 5000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "unverified", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q2" ], "description": "March 2025 ambition: 5,000, with 10,000 at the upper end", "outcome": "No comparable company-reported 2025 total was found. July 2026 describes successor lines under construction; that does not quantify 2025 pilot output. Not scored as achieved or missed." }, { "id": "tesla-2026", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-03-20", "targetAt": "2026-12-31", "value": 50000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q2" ], "description": "2026 production ambition", "outcome": "Year still in progress; July 2026 filing describes line installation. Central model includes slower ramping and broad uncertainty." }, { "id": "tesla-2030", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-04-22", "targetAt": "2030-12-31", "value": 1000000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "description": "One million Optimus per year by 2030, potentially 2029", "outcome": "Management ambition, not a cumulative fleet estimate or a guaranteed production rate. The model uses explicit execution and demand assumptions." }, { "id": "figure-line", "manufacturer": "Figure", "announcedAt": "2025-03-15", "targetAt": null, "value": 12000, "measure": "capacity", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "figure-botq", "figure-350" ], "description": "BotQ annual line design capacity", "outcome": "Disclosure does not give a firm date for full utilization. April 2026 separately reports >350 builds; line capability is not completed production." }, { "id": "figure-supply", "manufacturer": "Figure", "announcedAt": "2025-03-15", "targetAt": "2029-03-15", "value": 100000, "measure": "supply-chain-capability", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "figure-botq" ], "description": "Supply chain able to scale to 100,000 robots over four years", "outcome": "Not 100,000 robots already built, orders, or an unconditional production commitment." }, { "id": "hyundai-2028", "manufacturer": "Hyundai / Boston Dynamics", "announcedAt": "2026-01-05", "targetAt": "2028-12-31", "value": 30000, "measure": "capacity", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "hyundai-2028" ], "description": "Scalable system capable of 30,000 robots annually by 2028", "outcome": "Future robot-production system target; actual Atlas mix, commissioning, utilization and demand remain uncertain." } ], "validation": { "subject": "AGIBOT cumulative milestones", "scope": "Mixed bipedal + wheeled production; validates a short-horizon extrapolator only.", "cutoff": "2026-03-30", "testThrough": "2026-06-28", "points": [ { "date": "2024-12-15", "publishedAt": "2024-12-22", "value": 962, "sourceId": "agibot-962" }, { "date": "2025-12-08", "publishedAt": "2025-12-08", "value": 5000, "sourceId": "agibot-5000" }, { "date": "2026-03-30", "publishedAt": "2026-03-30", "value": 10000, "sourceId": "agibot-10000" }, { "date": "2026-06-28", "publishedAt": "2026-06-28", "value": 15000, "sourceId": "agibot-15000" } ], "limitation": "Only one eligible, mixed-form holdout has three earlier comparable dated milestones. It cannot validate a global biped forecast through 2030. Unitree's 2023/2024 production was published in 2026 and cannot be used to pretend a 2024 backtest was possible. Lower-bound shipment reports are not exact production outcomes." }, "researchNotes": [ "2020–2025 global points are reconstructions, not discovered global censuses. Early years depend heavily on the disclosed opening balance and research-program allowances.", "Chinese production filings corrected Unitree's early history. Japanese Honda and Korean KAIST sources establish programs, not annual quantities. Geographic coverage is not a claim of exhaustive manufacturer coverage.", "Quarterly forecasts begin July 2026 after the last common half-year cutoff. The current date lies inside that modelled period. All 2030 inputs are scenario assumptions; company targets are presented separately.", "Retrospective historical reconstruction may use later publications. Historical backtests use publication dates strictly, preventing that same information from leaking into a past forecast.", "The one comparable holdout is mixed-form AGIBOT output. Its preferred extrapolator is not a validated global bipedal forecasting model; no accuracy percentage is promised for 2030." ] }, "annual_series": [ { "year": 2020, "annual_output": { "low": 12, "central": 69, "high": 305 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 121, "central": 667, "high": 2775 }, "evidence": "reconstructed" }, { "year": 2021, "annual_output": { "low": 12, "central": 93, "high": 420 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 133, "central": 760, "high": 3195 }, "evidence": "reconstructed" }, { "year": 2022, "annual_output": { "low": 15, "central": 152, "high": 615 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 148, "central": 912, "high": 3810 }, "evidence": "reconstructed" }, { "year": 2023, "annual_output": { "low": 105, "central": 462, "high": 1439 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 253, "central": 1374, "high": 5249 }, "evidence": "reconstructed" }, { "year": 2024, "annual_output": { "low": 1331, "central": 2615, "high": 4375 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 1584, "central": 3989, "high": 9624 }, "evidence": "reconstructed" }, { "year": 2025, "annual_output": { "low": 10832, "central": 15020, "high": 22450 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 12416, "central": 19009, "high": 32074 }, "evidence": "reconstructed" }, { "year": 2026, "annual_output": { "low": 27796.077131378348, "central": 45306.97777982443, "high": 77641.78839097329 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 40212.07713137835, "central": 64315.97777982443, "high": 109715.78839097329 }, "evidence": "includes-forecast" }, { "year": 2027, "annual_output": { "low": 28578.748592645134, "central": 80524.58767901998, "high": 216274.0889350404 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 68790.82572402348, "central": 144840.56545884442, "high": 325989.8773260137 }, "evidence": "includes-forecast" }, { "year": 2028, "annual_output": { "low": 30497.798296617242, "central": 159119.21208998928, "high": 770373.5670569569 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 99288.62402064072, "central": 303959.7775488337, "high": 1096363.4443829707 }, "evidence": "includes-forecast" }, { "year": 2029, "annual_output": { "low": 31347.35086252817, "central": 324232.51998030575, "high": 2963373.5426615747 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 130635.97488316889, "central": 628192.2975291394, "high": 4059736.9870445454 }, "evidence": "includes-forecast" }, { "year": 2030, "annual_output": { "low": 32341.258917345855, "central": 658425.5217497601, "high": 5305763.869890751 }, "cumulative_at_year_end": { "low": 162977.23380051475, "central": 1286617.8192788996, "high": 9365500.856935296 }, "evidence": "includes-forecast" } ], "targets": [ { "id": "tesla-2025-initial", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-01-29", "targetAt": "2025-12-31", "value": 10000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "revised", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-jan25-call", "tesla-jan25-report", "tesla-allhands-report" ], "description": "Initial 2025 internal plan: roughly 10,000", "outcome": "Musk qualified this as ambitious. March remarks focused on 5,000, with 10,000 as an upper ambition. No comparable actual full-year total has been established." }, { "id": "tesla-2025", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-03-20", "targetAt": "2025-12-31", "value": 5000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "unverified", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q2" ], "description": "March 2025 ambition: 5,000, with 10,000 at the upper end", "outcome": "No comparable company-reported 2025 total was found. July 2026 describes successor lines under construction; that does not quantify 2025 pilot output. Not scored as achieved or missed." }, { "id": "tesla-2026", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-03-20", "targetAt": "2026-12-31", "value": 50000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-allhands", "tesla-allhands-report", "tesla-q2" ], "description": "2026 production ambition", "outcome": "Year still in progress; July 2026 filing describes line installation. Central model includes slower ramping and broad uncertainty." }, { "id": "tesla-2030", "rowId": "tesla", "manufacturer": "Tesla / Elon Musk", "announcedAt": "2025-04-22", "targetAt": "2030-12-31", "value": 1000000, "measure": "annual-output", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "tesla-q1-call", "tesla-million-report" ], "description": "One million Optimus per year by 2030, potentially 2029", "outcome": "Management ambition, not a cumulative fleet estimate or a guaranteed production rate. The model uses explicit execution and demand assumptions." }, { "id": "figure-line", "manufacturer": "Figure", "announcedAt": "2025-03-15", "targetAt": null, "value": 12000, "measure": "capacity", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "figure-botq", "figure-350" ], "description": "BotQ annual line design capacity", "outcome": "Disclosure does not give a firm date for full utilization. April 2026 separately reports >350 builds; line capability is not completed production." }, { "id": "figure-supply", "manufacturer": "Figure", "announcedAt": "2025-03-15", "targetAt": "2029-03-15", "value": 100000, "measure": "supply-chain-capability", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "figure-botq" ], "description": "Supply chain able to scale to 100,000 robots over four years", "outcome": "Not 100,000 robots already built, orders, or an unconditional production commitment." }, { "id": "hyundai-2028", "manufacturer": "Hyundai / Boston Dynamics", "announcedAt": "2026-01-05", "targetAt": "2028-12-31", "value": 30000, "measure": "capacity", "status": "future", "sourceIds": [ "hyundai-2028" ], "description": "Scalable system capable of 30,000 robots annually by 2028", "outcome": "Future robot-production system target; actual Atlas mix, commissioning, utilization and demand remain uncertain." } ], "validation": { "cutoff": "2026-03-30", "through": "2026-06-28", "actual": 15000, "trainingSourceIds": [ "agibot-962", "agibot-5000", "agibot-10000" ], "candidates": [ { "method": "constant-output", "prediction": 14017.857142857143, "absoluteError": 982.1428571428569, "percentError": 6.547619047619047 }, { "method": "constant-growth", "prediction": 15289.505365837496, "absoluteError": 289.50536583749636, "percentError": 1.930035772249976 }, { "method": "damped-ramp", "prediction": 14596.783241979005, "absoluteError": 403.21675802099526, "percentError": 2.6881117201399682 } ], "winner": "constant-growth", "eligibleFolds": 1, "observedAnnualGrowth": 8.483983731492138 }, "validation_limitation": "Only one eligible, mixed-form holdout has three earlier comparable dated milestones. It cannot validate a global biped forecast through 2030. Unitree's 2023/2024 production was published in 2026 and cannot be used to pretend a 2024 backtest was possible. Lower-bound shipment reports are not exact production outcomes." }